Friday, May 23, 2025
Home Blog Page 4

Myanmar’s Leader First Visit to China

By
Tim M Htut
-

Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has embarked on his first visit to China since taking over as the de facto Head of State in 2021. Senior General departed on the morning of November 5. The itinerary involved several regional meetings in Yunnan province of Myanmar’s most important international ally, China.

Relations between Beijing and Naypyidaw have been cooled until the middle of 2024 when the former reaffirm its support for the existing administration when majority of the public have the opposite opinion of China supporting the northern rebels. Things got even better when Wan Yi visited and hence the leader final visit as a result.

Myanmar leader met and discuss with Chinese government officials on the friendship between the governments and people of the two countries, to develop and strengthen economic and multi-sectoral cooperation.

China is Myanmar’s biggest trading parter and a major arms supplier. It has invested billions of dollars in its mines, oil and gas pipelines, and other infrastructure.

Myanmar has fallen behind Cambodia and Laos in terms of economic growth and GDP per capita since 2017. One of the contributing factors is lack of major BRI related investment from China into Myanmar, compared to the other two countries. Myanmar definitely needs China for its economic development.

China in turn needs a stable Myanmar. In the event of a Pacific blockade by the US, due to Taiwan issue, China needs a reliable Indian Ocean route to import food and fuel. Pakistan route over Himalayas has been constructed but it is limited in its use for only three months of the year. Myanmar route via Kyauk Phyu and Muse is open the whole year, provided the border regions remain stable. Thus China has chosen its side to openly support the government while admonishing the rebels and closing their crossing check points into Yunnan. While it is in China’s interest to have a peaceful Myanmar, it may just be the opposite of US interests. Hence US is openly supporting and arming resistance forces in Chiang Mai, Thailand to ensure that civil unrest continues in Myanmar, until a government who favours them governs the State.

While this trip is the first of probably many to China, he has visited Russia, another key ally, several times since 2021, including meeting with President Vladimir Putin in 2022.

The army chief visited the southwestern city of Kunming on Wednesday to attend a two-day summit of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) – a group including China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia. He was also appointed as the leader of the group for the current term for the grouping.

Senior General also met up with Chinese businessmen and courted them to continue investing in Myanmar. He returned to Myanmar on Saturday, November 9.

Is Democracy the Right System for Myanmar?

By
zhm
-

Democracy is a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. That system is what Myanmar has practiced for the ten years from 2011 t0 2020, until the voters’ fraud by NLD government in 2020 elections.

Yet we all should not forget what the famous Socrates said about democracy and got executed for speaking up. Socrates believed that democracy was not as good as it appeared and had several arguments against it, including:

I. Voting requires skill and wisdom
Socrates believed that voting, whether directly or for representatives, requires a skill and wisdom that not everyone has. He argued that giving people without the skill the ability to vote could lead to societal shipwreck.

II. Demagoguery
Socrates believed that people seeking election could exploit our desire for easy answers. He believed that democracy would lead to demagoguery, which is political activity that seeks support by appealing to the desires and prejudices of ordinary people rather than by using rational argument.

Not forgetting the simple words of wisdom from Lee Kuan Yew; “People tend to elect their leaders based on how well they talk and how good they look on TV. The result has always been disastrous for the voters”.
In essence, democracy system has the habit of choosing the wrong leaders, especially if the populace is not competent or educated enough to make the right choice.

Experience of past ten years
Experience of the past ten years in Myanmar has been the proof of that. President Thein Sein administration was always viewed with slight derision for being not really a democratic government. When people had a chance to select via a so-called in a democratic way, they selected Su Kyi and her compatriots, who are adept at none, but talking.

As the 900 years old knight said in the Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, “You must choose, but choose wisely. For as the true grail will bring you life but the false grail will take it away.” Hindsight is 20-20, but looking back, no rational being would say Myanmar chose wisely in 2015.

Economy performed worse under Su Kyi. No significant infrastructure projects was undertaken. Inflation was higher. Currency depreciated more. Their time was spent wholeheartedly on attacking the military, defunding the previously approved projects or doing nonsensical projects such as Welcome to XXX signages across every little towns and cities. Businessmen and elders talked about how the country would have changed so much for the better had President Thein Sein had a chance to govern for the next five years. But then, this is democracy.

Western model vs Eastern models

The western model of democracy relies on reasonably wise and educated populace, who combined together would have an increased chance of selecting the suitable and qualified candidates. (Other than Trump perhaps). Plus the countries are already enriched through two centuries of colonialism, exploiting resources of their colonies such as India and Myanmar,while boosting their national incomes and the wealth of their citizens. Their citizens do not have to worry about basic daily survival. Their children welfare are well taken care of by the government.

Most of the countries of the east do not have such luxury. China rose out of the ashes of the infamous famine, due to its program of the great leap backwards and cultural revolutions. Vietnam got to its hyper growth mode today pushing its luck after three consecutive rounds of invasion by colonial powerhouses. Singapore has reached first world stage through the tough love imposed by its founder, depriving all its citizens of what Europeans called ‘basic human rights’. How can their systems of governments be measured by yardsticks of the West. These three just provided evidence that countries in Asia can reach first world level of development, without colonising other countries and following their own system of governance.

Necessities

For democracies to succeed, certain base lines or minimum standards are necessary. E.g., the majority of the population should have a some minimum income and education levels. That would ensure that when the majority prevails in a democracy, it is the intelligent majority who prevail and not the village idiots who want to bomb the country away.
A well-read and educated population would see to the fact that their future generation focus on development and not encourage them to go into the jungle to maim themselves and become disabled. In the absence of such requisites, could it be possible for Myanmar to prosper under a democratic system of government?

The issue of leadership

Leaders are born, not made. Quoting LKY again, he had said, “I have never heard of someone who has become a great leader, after attending a leadership course”. The systems in China, Singapore and Vietnam work due to great or at least, good leadership.
If you study these countries, you will see leaders who are incorruptible, leaders who are resolute in punishing corrupt practices, leaders who put the right people in the right place, leaders who are not afraid in an international arena and leaders who believe that the next generation of potential leaders love the country as much as they do and would give them chances to grow up and lead the country.

Leaders are not gods. They do not know all (unless you are Kim Jong Un or Il). When they surround themselves with advisory panels, the panelists should be well verse in the ways of the modern world and at an international level. Having panelists with the average age of 70+ would not do the country any good. Older may be wiser, but they would also be slower and be more cheugy than the younger counterparts. Plus they are more likely to be ‘Yes’ men, in order to avoid confrontation and challenges. How would the country move forward under such circumstances?

The issue of ageism in leadership is directly relating to the promotion of younger and more capable individuals into position of leaders. When youth are given chances, the leaders can handpick them later on, as their performance would have been observed by then. This is where our Myanmar is out of step with the fast developing economies in the neighbourhood. Based on OECD report of 2023 the average age of cabinet members stood at 53 among OECD countries. Myanmar cabinet has advanced golden oldies with an average age of 65.

You can see better contrast within ASEAN. The average age of Singapore cabinet ministers now is 52, a thirteen years knock off from the previous generation average age of 65. With the Thailand’s PM reaching the ripe old age of 38, the average age there is likely to be even younger.

Law and order

Finally, the issue of law and order. Regardless of the system of government we follow, maintaining law and order is the epitome of good governance. China, Singapore or Vietnam would have limited many human rights by Western standards, but they are respected due to their strict law and order regimes.

We should be prepared to publicise the crimes, corrupt practices and the punishment too. Recently, a video clip was uploaded showing youths less than 18, being executed for rape in the self administrative state of Wa in the eastern Shan state. We do not hear any form of complaints from leaders of the so called democratic world, or HRW or UN agencies or NGOs. At least, the Wa state sent a signal to the rest of the world that lawlessness would not be tolerated in their lands.

Once we have proper law and order and publicised punishments, it would be easier to rid ourselves of nepotism, cronyism, favouritism, plutocracy and kleptocracy.

If not democracy, what would be best then?

The issue is not about deciding what is the best, but following each country’s unique path to development to ensure it can stand tall among the international crowd. Add the spices of a good education system, good leadership, governing opportunities for youth and enforcement of law and order, Myanmar could be there in no time to stand abreast of its neighbours. Only thereafter, Myanmar people would not only dream about the vestiges of the past glorious kingdoms, but also become leaders and professionals in reality in the foreseeable future.

 

Who is to Clean up the Mess of Street Hawkers

By
zhm
-

If you ask 100 people on in Yangon about the lack of cleanliness in the capital city, I bet 100% of them would say it’s due to lack of discipline and street vendors. The first part I would say lack of enforcement, rather than lack to discipline. People need strict enforcement to reinforce discipline in them. Who would possibly think that people who behave in such a disciplined way in Singapore, would conduct themselves in a similar manner overseas? The high penalties and $ fines could not conceivably be the reason, could it?

Now we go into the issue of the street vendors. I once sat together in the same table with the previous Mayor of Yangon, U Hla Myint and posed this question to him: what is the most difficult issue that you have to deal with as a Mayor? The answer given to me was ‘the issue of street hawkers’. They are everywhere in every part of Yangon, from little back streets to the main roads. And most of them are selling food. The ugliest thing about food sellers is the food waste and the mess that they leave behind.

Go around central Yangon, townships such as Pabedan, Kyauk Ta Dar, Lan Ma Taw, etc., and you cannot help but notice lack of hygienic practices and the habit of throwing away whatever waste onto nearby area or into whatever little drain or hole that they could find. Most of the streets colonised by these food stalls display unsightly arrays of nasty rubbish, threatening both health and safety issue for the whole city population.

This behaviour is both unethical and unjust. How can they earn all the profit from their sale, but the cost of cleaning up their horrible leftovers have to be born by the residents and the local government (YCDC)? Every six months or so, YCDC (Yangon City Development Council) would ask residents for their contributions for clean up the streets, the back streets, the rats, the cockroaches, etc. But most of the mess that caused the infestation of these lovely creatures is not mainly due to actions of the residents. So, they have to pay for the negative externalities brought about by street hawkers.

We have not even started talking about the diseases such as Cholera, Typhoid or Plague yet. As recent as a couple of months ago, street vendors in Thar Kay Ta township were told to close their roadside food stalls for at least two months, because the source of cholera pandemic in the neighbourhood was traced back to them.

Contrast that with our neighbouring Thailand please. They do have street vendors like us. But the the streets remain relatively clean as there is enforcement to ensure that these roadside hawkers clean up their mass at day’s end.

Now even Thailand is tightening up its grip on the regulations governing road side stalls. Based on new Bangkok city council rules governing street vendors, only economically deficient Thai nationals would be allowed to ply on this trade. Specifically, migrant workers would be prohibited from working on these stalls, obviously targeting Myanmar migrants, who are at the top of both legal and illegal migration list in Thailand.

These vendors would also be forbidden from venturing out into pedestrian walkways. These Thai citizen vendors would have to apply for permit from public health authorities and they can deploy for an additional helper at their store. It was not clear from the announcement if the helper also have to be a Thai citizen. The rules also specified the maximum dimensions that the stalls can have and the areas that they can station relative to the size of the roads and walkways.

Its high time YCDC update its rules on roadside food stalls across Yangon and begin strict enforcement of these rules, for the cleaner, brighter and safer Yangon.

Alipay App in 16 Languages Now to Facilitate Foreigners in China

By
zhm
-

 

Chinese payment services platform Alipay recently announced that it now provides services in 16 languages, which it expects will help international tourists travel in China more smoothly. This move follows recent efforts by the People’s Bank of China and other authorities to improve payment services, making them more accessible for both elderly individuals and foreigners.

Services on the smartphone app are now available in French, German, Italian, Spanish, Portuguese, Arabic, Russian, Turkish, Malay, Indonesian, Thai, Korean, Japanese and Vietnamese, in addition to the Chinese and English services already in use.

With the latest update, foreign visitors in China can use the app’s payment service in the language of their choosing. Other frequently used services in the app, including a hotel booking platform, can be translated into that language with a single click using Alipay’s translation tool.

The People’s Bank of China, the central bank, in February held a meeting to optimise payment services in the country. Relevant government authorities have since collaborated to refine the national payment services system, providing increased convenience to elderly people and foreigners in China.

Researchers Identify Bacterial Therapy Potentially Effective against Colorectal Cancer

By
zhm
-

Bacterial therapy could offer a promising new method for the prevention and treatment of colorectal cancer, according to a study carried out by Chinese researchers. The recent study conducted by the School of Life Sciences at Lanzhou University in northwest China’s Gansu Province, has revealed that the probiotic Limosilactobacillus Fermentum GR-3, derived from “Jiangshui”, a traditional fermented food in northwestern China, demonstrates potential for promoting apoptosis in colon tumour cells and inhibiting their proliferation.

Professor Li Xiangkai, head of the research group and a professor at the university’s School of Life Sciences, explained that studies have shown that colorectal cancer patients often experience an imbalance in their gut microbiota and a persistent state of peroxidation in tumour cells. Unlike conventional antioxidants, probiotics like Lactobacillus GR-3 could specifically target the tumour microenvironment while also regulating intestinal flora.

Li’s team successfully isolated Lactobacillus GR-3, a strain with strong antioxidant properties. In both hyperuricemia mouse models and clinical trials, this strain has shown promise in promoting uric acid degradation by modulating the gut microbiome. Building on these findings, the research team explored the potential of Lactobacillus GR-3 in preventing colorectal cancer through its effects on gut flora and the host immune system.

The results showed that Lactobacillus GR-3 significantly reduced the growth of colon tumours in drug-induced mice and demonstrated positive therapeutic effects. The strain not only lowered tumour mass but also improved the composition of intestinal microbial metabolites, promoted apoptosis in colon cancer cells, and inhibited their proliferation. The research team will conduct further studies to investigate the specific mechanisms of action of Lactobacillus GR-3 and evaluate its clinical efficacy. (source:Xinhua)

The Lashio Incident

By
Charlie Greene
-

Everyone thought it was impossible for Lashio to fall. 100% of the people MI had spoken to, prior to the fall of the city, concurred on the inconceivability of it. Yet, it happened. With an airforce squadron, one regional command centre, one resident double digit light infantry division (with two other divisions coming in as reinforcements), an artillery unit, an armour outfit, battlefield engineers (BE), ground engineers (GE) squads and a medical detachment plus a military hospital, what more do you need to achieve victory?? Sometimes, against all the forces in our favours, all the stars became mis-aligned. Perhaps destiny cannot be avoided.
To get to the bottom of this, MI interviewed one of the well-known and reasonably well-connected lady from Lashio, who has to run for her life during the fall of the city. Her escape to Yangon is an adventure itself, worthy of at least a minor Hollywood flick or a Discovery episode. This may not be as exciting as Anne Frank’s diaries, but at least, it carries the elements of truth and scars of the civil war.

When was the first targeted attack on Lashio?
It happened on the night of July 2.

Is it because the artillery shells fell on that day?
No, no. It is on that day that we started hearing the gun shots due to the clashes between Tatmataw (Myanmar military) and the rebels.

How far are these initial clashes from the city centre?
About 5 to 6 miles.

How far do you live from the city centre?
We live in the western side of the city, near the suburbs, on the way to Namtu (another town). It’s between the golf course and the end of the city perimeter.

What happened next?
The next notable event happened on July 3., when rockets started to fall onto the city. It happened around 07:00. They (the rebels) started shooting these rockets directly at the residential areas. One of the first casualties was when one of these rockets hit one house in residential area along a main road, killing all six family members. They were Kachins (an ethic minority) and were having breakfast together.

How do you know for sure, these rockets are not from Tatmataw?
I can say with 100% certainly that these are not fired by Tatmataw. These types of rockets are used only by EAOs and the habit of firing these reflects also their style of attacks.

Are you saying Tatmataw does not have these types of rockets?
I do not if they have these or not. But we have experienced previous attacks of similar nature carried out by TNLA (Ta’ang National Liberation Army) ethnic rebels.

So you know which groups are attacking the city?
Yes.

How do you know?
The news that MNDAA (Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army) and their northern rebels alliance, will continue their attacks on Lashio, after Tatmataw surrender in Kohkang, has already been out for at least two months. They did acknowledged that Lashio is strong, well defended and would be difficult to conquer. But they have all agreed to proceed with the salient.

Such reports and bulletins started appearing in Facebook pages and the rebels’ media channels, around two months prior to the attacks.

When they posted such messages in their media, is it in Chinese, Shan or Burmese languages?
It is all in Chinese.

How you are read these since you do not know Chinese?
There are writers who translated news from Chinese language based media into Burmese language, especially in Muse (Ruili). The newspapers and traders in Muse translated these news and posted them on Facebook in both languages. Whatever the announcement, there would be a translated version, whenever it came out. Hence, we have the privilege of understanding these messages.

Who is inside these MNDAA grouping?
The northern rebel pact comprises of MNDAA, TNLA, AA (Arakan Army) and KIA (Kachin Independence Army) typically. Now PDF terrorists have joined them. So altogether five. How do I know – well you can see their uniforms. I also did asked them and looked at their flags along my escape route.

How many rockets they shot on average?
The rocket attacks started on July 3. At least 50 rockets fell on that day. There is no specific targets. They anyhow shot at any house or building. They did not bother where these rockets land. These rockets were all coming from the western side, Namtu area.

How do they get to Namtu?
The jungles around that area are occupied by Tanaung people. As I have said before, their army TNLA’s main weapons are these rockets. Its only about 7 miles from my house. The other groups attacked from the East and North East.

How about the South, along the Lashio – Pyin Oo Lwin highway?
I live in the West. The highway is towards the South-West. MNDAA Kokang forces attacked from the South-East and North-East. The North-East area is directly connected towards the Kokang region. The Western side is Ta’ang controlled area. They even announced via their media channels that they would begin their attacks with full force from that sector.
Tatmadaw did try to blockade their entry points from the West. Hence instead of trying to attack head on, TNLA started with the rockets campaign raining over the whole city. Their indiscriminate firing caused many civilian casualties and significant damages to properties, including religious buildings, pagodas, schools, hospitals and bazaars. After three or four consecutive days of such attacks, people began to panic and decided to abandon the city.

How is the movement of civilians?
Most of them thought of abandoning the city only about two or three days after the clashes. That’s when the rocket shower started. On the 8th of July, all the government offices and branches were notified to desert the city. The news of that spread and civilians also realised that they must also turn their backs on their home town.

When the government notified their branches and offices to move to Taung Gyi, did it mean that the government knew in advance that they would lose?
I do not think it is because of that. I think because of the dangers of short-range projectiles. They are unpredictable and can result in major casualties, I believe. Tatmadaw knew from the start that they would not lose just because of rocket attacks alone. We have experienced such attacks prior to this.

When no-one thought Lashio would be lost, why do you think this happened? I want to ask about the role of the air force first. Are there targeted bombing on enemy bases? Any civilian casualties or friendly fires due to the air support?
Until now, I have not heard of civilian casualties due to direct attacks or bombing by Tatmadaw. Normally the bombing happened at late evening or at night. There would always be a reconnaissance flight around 17:00. Thereafter, another blue fighter would follow suit, probably for arial photography. I think that plane communicated with the artillery unit on the ground, with respect to the specific targets. After the artillery fire, the bombing campaign ensued with fighter bomber aircrafts. Because of such co-ordinated shelling, the casualties suffered by MNDAA counted into thousands. Body count by TNLA amounted to hundreds too. Hence their initial attacks were repelled.

What was the next crucial event?
They started attacking with the ground forces after initial days of rocket barrage. But all the rebel salients got pushed back as Tatmadaw has a monopoly on air to ground assault and had stationed their forces at critical junctures. So the insurgents were unable to secure a breakthrough using the normal routes.

Then, how did they end up inside Lashio?
The guerrillas wore their respective uniforms during the day and wore civilian clothes at night. Since the town is not a walled city, there is no clear division between the villages, jungles, mountains and the city itself in terms of the perimeters. There were heavy downpour at night during the period in question and taking advantage of the darkness and incessant rains, the rebels seeps into the urban areas in the middle of the night.Their forces trickled down from every corner of the hills and connected with their sympathisers and supporters already stationed in the city. The small arms had already been smuggled into the city by then. (Reminded us of the Tat Offensive, during Vietnam war).

If that is the case, it is as if they are rocket bombing their own ethnic people?
Not really, they seemed to have communication among themselves. They apparently knew when the rockets attacks would begin and end. Furthermore, the initial success and advantage by Tatmadaw evaporated when these rebels started shelling back Tatmataw posts using the same powerful artillery used by the former.

How did they managed to secure such heavy artilleries?
It happened as a direct result of surrender of Kokang, after 1027 event, referring to October 27, when MNDAA started attacking the Tatmadaw units stationed in Kokang area. The General there gave all up without firing a shot. He has been court martially and sentenced to more than 10 years of prison term.
He just not only surrendered himself and personnel under his watch, but also gave up lots of modern heavy artillery, including 155cm howitzers and armour units. Such a brave man indeed, committing a criminal breach of trust, placed upon him by Tatmadaw and the people of Myanmar and treason of the highest order.
MNDAA forces brought along these weapons with them and started counter ordinance fire. That started on the July 8. By then, all the government offices and branches have been ordered to leave for Taung Gyi (capital of Shan State). That’s when the horror and hysteria set in to the minds of people. The sounds of these howitzers were simply unbearable.

Why the air force cannot attack the origins of these battery units?
Yes they did attack. But the thickness of the jungle and the invisibility due to the weather condition impair the effectiveness of such an onslaught. Inability to distinguish between ordinary villagers and the insurgents made the operation very arduous.

When did the rebel forces completed accumulating sufficient personnel within the city to start launching an urban warfare?
By the July 10, the number of rebels within the city has more or less exceeded the ordinary civilian population. Houses are in disarray now due to the rockets bombardments and with many new faces coming and staying next to you, the residents realised that it is now or never. No market, no food, no electricity, no cell service, only sounds of howitzers and gunfire. Water is abundant at least. The phone lines went off from July 15 onwards.

When did you run then?
I was a bit overly optimistic I supposed. On July 23, we had our breakfast and closed off all the doors of the house. We lived in Bogyoke village (village for high ranking military personnel). We ourselves are not VIPs though. That village is always guarded by a squad of infantry men. The rebel ground forces started engaging them on July 23. Then we realised for sure the civil war has reached our doorstep.
The highway to Pyin Oo Lwin has been bulldozed by the enemy months ago. They did announce on their media channels. We only have a Suzuki saloon so going through the jungle is not an option for us.

What happened to those without their own private transport?
They have to cramped into light trucks like canned sardines, to reach to Taung Gyi via an alternate route. It cost between 5 and 7 lakhs ($100 to $125) per person and $300+ if you are renting the whole truck.

How much luggage or personal items can you carry on these trucks?
People simply did not have the luxury to time to pick and choose what they want to carry. Everything happened so fast. We sort of knew we had to leave before the 23rd. But we did have small children in our extended family and we could not take this decision lightly. But as advised by friends from Yangon, we managed to accumulate enough fuel, before things got worse.
And very fortunately, the two small cars that we got were not damaged during the crossfire in our village.

What route did you take?
We did not really get out of Lashio on till July 25. On 23rd, the day that we left our house, I was still hoping that things might get better. So, I only took really important and crucial items and went to another part of town, where there were less fighting and lived in a friend’s house over there. Yet, war follows and the sounds of heavy artillery and amour cannons made everyone horrified at the thought of getting a direct hit.

Any armoured units within the city perimeters?
Yes, we have armour, artillery, air force and North-East regional command centre in Lashio. But the attacks were scary.

How did you eventually escape?
On 25th, two days after staying at a friend’s house, the fighting got more intensive, the shelling become more frequent and the sounds of gunfire got louder as the clashes reached our doorstep. Even the medics, ground engineers and other auxiliary platoons had to joined the relentless exchanges. They were attacked from all fronts within the city itself.
We eventually took the courage to put whatever belongings that we got onto our two cars and put up the white flags, made of cut clothing, on them. Together with two cars of our friend, we left together from her house. We headed south. Near the south gate, we met other cars waiting up for company too. We team up with them and lead by young men from the city, we finally leave town in a row of ten cars.

Where did you go afterwards?
We head towards the road that would lead us to Taung Gyi. Lashio is in Northern Shan State, whereas Taung Gyi is in the South. Along the way to reach that road, we had to pass by a lot of check points, all manned by MNDAA soldiers. But they did not stop us. We did not see anyone from Tatmadaw side anymore, all along the 60 mile stretch to reach towards the main road to Taung Gyi. They checked our ID cards, asked where we were going and let us through. They checked the passengers. If they suspected the travellers were soldiers, policemen or civil servants they would detain them.

How could they possibly know if you are a civil servant?
I guess civil servants are better looking and more smartly dressed than most of us.

Why did you not escape towards nearer Pyin Oo Lwin and head to Taung Gyi instead?
Oh no, the rebels did not let the people cross the Goat Hteik Bridge. Seik In bridge has been demolished. Kyin Te bridge likewise. Since the Oct 27, 2023 attacks. Once we drove around 60 mile, we reached an area controlled by RCSS (Restoration Council of Shan State), one of the larger EAOs in Myanmar. We slept in a monastery for one night and continued our journey towards Taung Gyi early in the morning.

It seemed Lashio is heavily defended by all branches of the Tatmataw. Why did we still lose?
The main reason is treachery by Nyi Nyi Htut. I think he is of colonel rank, in charge of military communications. His treason is of such magnitude that brought embarrassment to the whole nation. He did AWOL, brought along with him all the important military facts and information and defected to the dark side. Plus he sabotaged all the military communication links before turning traitor. After he did that, the air, ground and other manpower support could no longer be directed towards the areas that require supporting fire. The main cause is the collapse of internal communications system of Tatmadaw. After that, air support was no longer available to our ground forces.

How about walkie talkies used by Tatmataw?
That system was also totally compromised. So the enemy could listen to whatever the Tatmadaw was communicating among different units. As I mentioned, the reason we lost is due to the destruction of lines of communications and leakage of top secret and battle-critical information from Tatmadaw, due to treason by a single high-level individual. So the enemy knew exactly where our forces are and even where the regional commanding general is stationed. Thats how he was captured. Just like a bird or a chicken.

So the regional commander of the North-Eastern command was among those captured by the rebels?
Yes, he was. He, his assistant and another colonel under him. These are three main senior personnel that they got and used eventually for exchange as POWs (Prisoners of War).

Who are they being exchanged with?
Oh, they are already back in Nay Pyi Taw now. When the Airforce bombed the rebel positions, there were a lot of casualties as well as a lot of POW captured. 57 altogether, were captured alive. The strange thing is that none of these 57 POWs can speak the Kokang language. They only spoke Chinese. This is just an example. The number of POWs exchanged is actually more than 57. They are in fact, mercenaries hailed from Yunnan province of China. And some of them are professional snipers.

We also got snipers on our side, right?
Yes, but their snipers were better. The reason is also due to the collapse of the communication system. The rebels had access to internal communications of Tatmadaw. So their targeting is far more superior to ours.
When they announced they had captured Lashio for the first time, they just came to the front of North-Eastern regional command and took some photos to post on social media. At that time, the command has not been captured yet. Tatmadaw was still able to defend. Then the rebels attacked the medics, medical corps and the military hospital. But these personnel there are without any weapons. But they attacked anyway. The hospital is also used by the civilians, since Lashio do not have a proper hospital for civilians.

Did they attack the hospital staff and patients?
Yes, it happened during their attack on the military hospital. All the injured and hospitalised military personnel were murdered on the spot. Four pregnant ladies also got their throats sliced and executed. The children were also slaughtered. This is the worst massacre of all. I have seen the photo evidences of that. These victims were totally unrelated to the conflict. They were all butchered by the rebels.

So the three top commanders have been exchanged with the 57+ mercenaries?
Not just the top three. There were many POWs from the fall of North-Eastern regional command. Many more were captured during the attack at the hospital too. The insurgents also broke open the jail and released the prisoners.

How many do you think we lost from Tatmadaw side?
May be into hundreds. But the rebels suffered more losses in terms of body count. Probably in thousand. Mostly from Kokang.

Why do you think they keep the soldiers as POWs while murdering the medics and patients at the hospital?
One of the reason could be the soldiers may be of certain rank, while the patients were people of insignificance. May be they also do not want to deal with those who are not able- bodied. I am most upset about the attack on the hospital. They went on top of one of the hotel and fire a rocket directly at the hospital, on purpose. The pregnant ladies murdered included Kachin and Kayin ethnic women. These women do not have money to go to private hospital or clinics. That’s why there were there at the military hospital, as it provided free care. Look at their fate now.

A Friend Not in Need of Water

By
Tim M Htut
-

Due to typhoon Yagi in the South China Sea and a small storm in the Bay of Bengal, continuous rainfall and flooding have caused major innundation in various parts of Myanmar. This could be the first time in history that the country has been impacted by such extensive floods that inundated many villages and towns in many states and regions concurrently.

The torrential rain has caused water levels in creeks and rivers to rise, dams to overflow, drains to spill over onto roads, resulting in major flooding, loss of life, destruction of homes and livelihoods and considerable economic losses. The eastern side of Nay Pyi Taw greater region was submerged in water, a fact totally unheard of in the past. Rescuers were still trying to reach the Loikaw, the capital of Kayah State, totally engulfed in water.Taung Ngu city was inaccessible for two weeks in September due to floods. Flood has subsided in Keng Tong and Tachileik in easter Shan State near Thai border, leaving muds as thick as half an adult height covering the houses, vehicles and motor bikes. Yangon Mandalay expressway was completely cut off around 340 mile marker near Mandalay for nearly a week due to an overflow from surrounding farmlands and swamps. One of the worse affected could be Kalaw, where the speed of the downpour and floods causes landslides and buried people and houses altogether. Our favourite destination Inn Lay was not spared either. The accumulation of torrent waters from the mountains surrounding the famous lake, resulted in significant rise in water levels across the lakes, causing the houses on stilts to collapse and even the floating farms to be swept away across the lake. Most of the houses are under water now, with only the roofs being visible from afar. Even the AA (Arakan Army) controlled Rakhine state was not spared either. A good portion of the land area controlled by AA is inundated now; help is out of the question on the government side due to safety and security issues, yet not forthcoming from the rebels either.

The flood has damaged roads, bridges, houses, departmental buildings, schools, and other structures. Initial assessment by the government stated that at least 160,000 homes have been flooded in 56 townships across the land (there are altogether 330+ townships in the whole country). Around 500 relief camps have been set up by regional and state governments and charitable organisations. The death toll has been counted as 230 being killed and 80 missing last of middle of September. Furthermore is expected as search and rescue missions started to recover the victims of the landslides. The damage also included 117 departmental offices and buildings, 1,040 schools, 386 religious buildings, roads, bridges, power towers, and telecom towers.

Nearly 130,000 farm animals have died, and 643,081 acres of paddy and other crops have been damaged, based on mid month assessment of the damage so far. The vegetable prices have suddenly shot up, due to the disruption of logistics from the vegetables producing southern Shan state to Yangon. Fuel in affected areas were inaccessible, causing the hyperinflation of 300-500% on a litre bottle of petrol or diesel. Most of the hotels on the banks of Inn Lay lake were flooded too, possibly rendering them inhabitable at least for the upcoming season, even if the owners have spare cash to repair the damages. A friend in need is a friend indeed

Floods in China, Vietnam, Laos due to this typhoon is equally devastating. But for a poorer country relying on agriculture, the damage to the economy can be exponential.

Government’s human and financial resources are already stretched. Private donations poured in to help the flood victims, with a parallel increase in Facebook frauds taking advantage of this tragedy to defraud people in the context of collecting donations. With the widespread use of k-pay, even a donation by a hundred can enrich the fraudster temporarily.

Government is now organising private donations using designated units and departments. In a recent private donation drive, the government managed to collect more than 33 billion Kyats (~$6.5 million) from private individuals and companies, bringing a rare occasion to smile about for the Senior General.
Yet, help is hard to come by in places where it is needed most. Everyday over social media, people posted videos of their plight, hoping and asking for assistance. People close to MI has visited Inn Lay on the 3rd week of September and no government officials are in sight, when they distributed jerry cans of drinking water to the affected communities.

International aid has also poured in meanwhile.

The World Food Programme (WFP) is launching an emergency food aid operation this week to assist around 500,000 flood-hit people in Myanmar. WFP has been offering flood relief aid since July, and the scale of its operations will now be significantly expanded. The organisation plans to distribute one month’s worth of emergency food supplies, including rice, fortified biscuits, and nutritional support, to about 500,000 flood-battered people, meeting their immediate needs.
“This flood, caused by Super Typhoon Yagi, is one of the worst in Myanmar’s modern history. Large parts of the country are submerged, and in some areas, it is the first time in decades they have experienced such flooding. The impact on food security is severe. Even before the floods, more than 13 million people in Myanmar were already facing food shortages in August. Our staff teams are working swiftly to meet these growing needs,” said its local chief.

European Union has also donated 2 million Euros as flood relief aid.
India has also despatched a navy ship full of 10 tons of supplies to Myanmar in mid September.
China is also on the verge of sending in supplies, according to the sources from the Embassy.
Korea association here has also donated 200 million kyats for flood relief.
Singapore has also sent an air force plane full of bottled drinking water and other supplies in recently. Obviously, used plastic bottles might become a waste disposal issue later on.
Japan has also donated some nominal amount to the government.
The obvious invisibility is the NNCP terrorists and EAO groups. When the push comes to shove, they have no plans to help the people that they claim to serve and represent. Or, as Trump would proudly said, ‘They have concepts of a plan’. They collected funds across the world to do anti government activities and along the way, enriched themselves with millions. When people really needed them, they stood so small!

 

 

2024/2025 Prescriptions for Myanmar

By
zhm
-

Current State of Affairs

I doubt anyone with a basic understanding of economics would dispute a negative economic growth for this calendar year. We cannot simply take the official accounts and take the balance of trade surplus as an accurate indicator of the economy. With severe restrictions on imports, the official current account is always likely to be in surplus. Yet imports continued to flow in like a tidal wave across a large number of porous borders. Without considering these unofficial statistics, we will not be able to judge the economy correctly and we would be misinterpreting the economic signals on most fronts.

Because of the downturn or recession, whatever you might want to call, many companies and factories are trying to reduce working hours as of now. Lack of raw materials due to import restrictions, high price of them caused by Kyats depreciation, specific and qualified labor shortages, general increases in cost of production from electricity, diesel to accessories are all causing them to lower their production targets and runs compared to previous years. The resultant impact is lesser need for production hours and workers.
Most of them have already reduced working hours and salaries. The most common cutback method so far has been one week off, one week work or alternate day off technique, to cater for lesser activity. All of them MI spoke to were trying to avoid having to retrench workers. Some are resorting to getting the workers work to from home at half wage. Hiring has also been stalled. None of the companies we spoke to said they would be adding additional headcount before the year end.

All these convey bad news for staff, caught among the dearth of jobs in the market place, increasing cost of living, and inability to go and venture out overseas to end up working as a maid or menial labourer.

With the dearth of credible economic statistics being publicised, it does not help but accentuate the bombardment of negative news coming out via fake news circles encamped within the perimeters of Chiang Mai, Thailand. How would we be able to take the correct remedy, if we do not know of genuine facts and figures!

Yet, we are still dragging each other down, oblivious of the fact that other countries, especially those neighbouring us, are treating us like dirt. We cursed and swore at our leaders online, attacked Myanmar own brands, businesses and companies if there is a slightest hint of them supporting our own government and military, shoved our competitors into the trench vengefully for even the slightest of the mistakes. Myopic, as blind as a bat, tunnel vision would come to our minds. Do they not know that our destiny is all tied by the same red passport that we have to hold when we get out of this land! Nonetheless, the majority fall under the trap of those instigators who wanted the country failed and the economy wrecked, because they no longer shared our destiny. Holding passports of the western countries (US, UK, Australia, etc.) they called for upheaval and continuing revolution, bestowing distrust among our nationals and promoting the mass murders of one another.

Without the unity on the inside, we will always be of lowest of the rock-bottom class people in view of other countries.
I do not want to dwell much on the military fronts. Reading the ‘Lashio Incident’ would probably help you better understand the circumstances. The latest update has been the fact that the the Colonel wanted for treason has been captured on September 27.

Murphy’s Law

Worst things always happen at the worst possible times! That’s what the Murphy’s Law said. You can convince yourself easily; on the day you have left the umbrella at home, there would be a downpour. When you are eating KFC with your fingers, there will be an itch on your body where you cannot possibly reach or scratch. Sounded familiar?
When the country is feeling despondent on the economic, security and military fronts, suddenly, once in a century floods will extensively inundate our farmlands and homes. The impact is going to last beyond this year. The standard of living has already gone down due to Kyat depreciation and excessive inflation. What more could we possibly suffer?
Notwithstanding, the recovery efforts are expected to be long and arduous. Families are already desperate need of help. NNCP terrorist groups claimed they are all for the people, then they all vanished from sight once the floods came in. Donations they collected are all for themselves only.

There are even news report of them shooting at Tatmadaw soldiers on the flood rescue missions. I don’t know if Kipling would be able to say the same phrase now, if he were alive: “I love the Burman with the blind favouritism born of first impression. When I die I will be a Burman”. What an irony, considering how things are now.

Getting the Inflation Wrong

CBM and MOF stated the last FY inflation at 27%. But no one really believe that figure. When the price of the eggs, e.g., has gone up from around 200 Kyats the year before to nearly 500 Kyats now, you know the figure is a hogwash. With the $ rates going up nearly 300% within the last three years, you know for sure, the imported inflation is somewhere around that figure. (Fret not, inflation in the UK, from 2019 to 2022 was six times the average figure of the previous ten years)

Electricity bills are going up from September 2024 onwards. The diesel and petrol are heading north all the time. These two costs would definitely be passed on the prices of locally produced goods and services.

The danger here is that inflation is becoming unanchored; with no third party or credible confirmation on inflation figures, the headline figure becomes flexible without any publicised targeted number by CBM or MOF. This long period of inflation would lead to both individuals and companies, expecting more price rises in the future.

Researchers from the Western world have provided that an unexpected 1% increase in CPI or RPI (Consumer/Retail Price Index) produces 0.7% rise in inflationary expectations for the future and the fact that the unexpected increase continued to exert influence over future pricing decisions.

Once this expectation has set in, it would become increasingly more difficult to control inflation. A dire warning for the CBM/MOF perhaps, but getting the truth out, setting the targets and garnering support especially from the business community would be an excellent start. Else, the future looks grim.

Pulse of the Foreign Believers
One Singapore businessman who has been operating in Myanmar for the past thirty years, complained of having to fund the operations out of his savings and having no new products to sell to customers because of the ban on imports.

One Indian businessman who is a major exporter of beans and pulses as well as owner of a number of restaurants, whines of the same issue. He has made Myanmar his home since his father’s times. Now, his moans has become meows and he decided to spend more of this times back in India and elsewhere.

One Frenchman, who is a permanent resident of Myanmar, has deserted Myanmar after his 20 years old travel and tour businesses has to stay shut due to the absence of any inbound European tourists into Myanmar. To rub salt into his wounds, his boutique hotel in Inn Lay that he wanted to put up for sale, got devastated so much by recent floods that he is returning to Myanmar to assess and repair the damages.

Korea chamber of business here similarly complained of import license and many transfer issues as their #1 complaint about current business environment.

The ‘last to arrive and the first to leave’ Japanese are still trying to find buyers for their factories in Thilawa and around Yangon, to totally abandon Myanmar.

Investors from the West are also moaning in distress, complaining incessantly of incurring losses year after year and difficult economic environment.

The Chinese want certainties in political situation and the scarcity of information is making all of them nervous, especially the shortage of those credible information by government news agencies.

Bringing the Confidence Back
The good proportion of investments and consumption in a country depends on the confidence that businesses and people have on that country and its economy. So what’s the recipe to increase confidence across the board?

1) Communication: We need the top leaders and ministers from the government talking about the State of the Union at least every month. There are many of us who believe in the current leaders and trust that they are doing their best for the country. With a little bit of top down communication, they cannot help but feel motivated about the need to move in the same direction with the government and help accomplish its policies. Best of all, they will help persuade others who lean towards the dark side to get themselves back to the mainstream, thereby reducing terrorism and destructive behaviours along the way.

2) Moral Leadership: If you look at Facebook and Tiktok right now, Myanmar pages are full of impoliteness, impertinence, impudence and insolence, highlighting the lack of moral guidance and leadership from elderly statesmen and alike. Akin to Lee Kuan Yew and Goh Chok Tong giving moral guidance for Singapore civil service and general population, we also need moral leaders who cared enough about the social apathy and lack of concern about the deterioration of moral values and standards, across the board. We need those who are not chicken out to talk about these degrading of moral principles in public and media.

3) Timelines and Specific Actions: Instead of using the wishy-washy phrase such as the government is doing what is necessary, ministry is doing the needful, the department will do the essential,would it not be a change for the better, if time lines and specific actions are included. Instead of just saying we will try to bring peace in Mandalay, e.g., would it not be build more confidence if the public hear that the Mandalay Region would be free of terrorists be the end of the year, by hook or by crook. Or something equivalent perhaps.
With such confidence being built up, businessmen would no longer be buying gold and USD. Foreign investors would not be thinking of turning their back on Myanmar. General population would be more supportive of the government actions. More people would start re-investing and hiring people. These confidence building exercises alone would bring much needed uplift to the economy, without costing anything to the State.

When would be the right time for youth?

The current Thai Prime Minister is 38. Singapore Prime Minister is 51. Last year, when Cambodia Ambassador to Myanmar left the country, he was 34. The new Ambassador is 39 years old. I believe you be hard pressed to find any ambassadors or ministers of Myanmar below the ripe old age of 55. Majority of them have been on this earth over more than six decades. Being older may equate to being wiser with better judgement, but it also means that they would be unwilling to make changes, slow in decision making, ‘cheugy’ in in technology and reluctant to upset the status quo. Worst of all, they are likely to be ‘yes’ men and avoid publicity, challenges and controversies. Even in a recent elections in a statutory board (council), the people wanting to occupy the top posts are 73 and 71 years old. Both of them are competing with another 50 year old, whom they deemed to be young to take on the responsibility. Opportunity for youth only exists in books and words in Myanmar perhaps.

Would it not be better if the youth are given a chance to face challenges, while being guided by the experienced? Would it not be preferable for the country to generate youthful and contemporary ideas from the qualified youth (of those around 50 years old)?

Probably I have to repeat the phrase of the day from Trump – Well, we have concepts of a plan (to promote youths)!

What will Myanmar be Like in 10 years

By
zhm
-

If you are asked to state one unique profession within Myanmar, fortune tellers might come into your mind. People here consult them whenever fortunes do not favour their circumstances. Yet most are simply prying on people’s misfortune to earn themselves a living. For how would Myanmar look in ten years time, we will not seek the answers in the soothsayers parlours at the base of pagodas. Instead, we will look at the current state of affairs objectively and scientifically to come up with a possible outcome on the path that the country will proceed.

As Xi Jinpeng has stated in his Governance of China book, the development is like a boat. Once you miss it, the boat is never going to come back for you. Myanmar has missed the boat to an enormous opportunity to progress from 2017 until now. After the stellar growth years of 2012 – 2015, the people chose an incompetent leader who spoke well on stage and committed economic suicide by focusing on nonsense and lack of focus on things that matter for economic development. Myanmar has become the poorest country in ASEAN in 2017 (World Bank data) and has never recovered from that infamous standing. It has fallen even behind the hyper populated Bangladesh.

Meanwhile, because of the economic mismanagement under Su Kyi era, instead of credible investments in infrastructure, Myanmar was left to dwell on the remains of the past infrastructure, a significant portion of which was built before 1960s. Her administration most visible infra projects are not railways, highways, bridges or roads, but ‘Welcome to xxxCity’, signs put up in every town and city across the country.

FDI has fallen well short of what other ASEAN countries of similar population are garnering. Vietnam and Thailand are receiving inward investments in billions of $, while the FDIs into Myanmar is still at miserable double digit millions on average for the past four years.

Short of employment opportunities, most educated and capable has gone abroad. Think of 5-10 million strong Myanmar diaspora in Thailand. You can go into almost all shops and speak Burmese and they would bring out one staff who can communicate with you. Because of lack of investment in infrastructure and diminishing FDI, Myanmar workers are deprived of the skills needed to earn increased wages in a competitive global environment. They have no experience with latest technologies nor are they well verse in productivity in an office environment. The route learning that the universities taught them only prepares them to memorise. They had not learn how to self learn or even google search, let alone use Ai or programming. Even word processing skills are elementary.

Years of not focusing on production and exports have led to continuous budget deficits that added to the national debt burdens. If you are not producing anything you cannot become rich. If you think of the products that Myanmar produce, other than natural resources, not many things would come to your mind. CMP perhaps. Agriculture products in unprocessed form. That’s it. How can we possibly come out of the poverty trap!

Recent attempts at price controls over foreign currency, gold, rice, edible oil, etc., are fulfilling their intended purpose. Inflation has not gone down. Due to political instability and losses on the military front, local business confidence is in the trenches. No one is opening new shops, renting new premises, but just buying gold and $ and amassing them, adding no value to economic growth. Hence stagflation sets in. It is not going out of fashion any time soon.

People are scared. All cash the rich in Yangon, Mandalay and Nay Pyi Taw have, are being directed towards the great escape to a foreign land. The well to do in the second tier towns have used up their buffer funds to relocate the whole families into the safe heavens of Nay Pyi Taw and Yangon. Who would have thought that Lashio would fall, with the largest regional military command (RMC) centre as well as an airforce? Who would then give the definite assurance that nothing will happen to whatever you own in Mandalay? Who would guarantee that Mandalay would not experience what has happened to Lashio. Once the artillery shells start to rain down upon the city, it would be too late to move out in an orderly manner by then.

With losses of major territories on most states and some divisions, this civil conflict is not likely to end in the foreseeable future. That would commit a lot of national income into the war efforts, depriving other much needed areas of their budget allocations, further downgrading the education system, public healthcare and infrastructure development.

Which country are we starting to look like?

A country where the local wages remain stagnant. A country where the poor remains under the poverty line and extreme poor are forced to eat out of rubbish. A country still at civil war in some significant parts of the country. A country that relies on its own diaspora form overseas transferring back $ to augment their national income. A country with poor infrastructure, slums and with a bad safety record. A country where their diaspora was doing most menial jobs overseas ranging from maids to cleaners to nurses to construction workers.

Can you imagine that country? Its name starts with ‘P’.

Myanmar is not there yet in totality, but on the verge of becoming one. But unless we shake up and shape up quickly, we will be that country with all the above characteristics, in less than half a decade.

Consider yourself warned my fellow citizens!

Why Price Controls Will Not Work

By
zhm
-

Any first year student of economics would be able to tell you the price of goods and services could only be determined by the forces of demand and supply and any effort to affect otherwise would ended up creating consumers’ and producers’ surpluses, which would eventually result in negative externalities.

Yet efforts across the world by different governments to somehow control the prices of consumer goods are uncontrollably persistent, from rich first world countries who exercise rent controls (EU) or control the property prices (Singapore), to developing countries to those in the badly managed countries category.

Price controls are not new. In fact, in the code of Hammurabi by the King of Babylon in 1800 BC included the set prices for the wages of craftsman and labourers some 3800+ years ago. Nowadays governments of various forms set controls by blunter blades of political pressure and haphazard response to inflationary pressures. Recent data from the World Bank showed that 89% of developing economies meddle with price of energy, 76% with price of food stuff, 13% with price of construction materials.

What mechanisms are there to control prices? The common ones included the price floors, where the minimum price that has to be paid to producers such as farmers and industries of essential national goods. Then, there were price caps aka price ceilings routinely set on indispensable consumer goods and services. We also come across techniques such as rent control in developed countries to provide affordable housing to the poor and the homeless. In mid 2019, Germany voted to freeze rent for 5 years. And price caps on a variety of goods and services exist in Spain, Holland and French. The current Biden administration even set controls on some drug prices in USA. At least half of the developed world has the minimum wages set into law, which itself is a form of price control.

Reasons for price controls are uncomplicated; the altruistic reasons remain to redistribute the economic burdens and wealth, to provide stability to the prices and the economy and potentially deflate the price of essential goods and services. This in turn would secure economic stability. Price caps aka ceilings help the poor afford necessities of life, while price floors prop up livelihoods of farmers. Keeping buffer stocks also stabilise volatile commodity prices.

Do they really work?

The obvious advantage especially on price controls on essential goods and services is to prevent traders and producers from price gouging. The secondary objective may be to prevent monopolistic behaviour among suppliers. The setting of minimum wages ensures at least a basic standard of living for wage earners.
As of now (August 2024) in Myanmar, the government has imposed price ceilings over foreign currencies, gold, rice, edible oil, bus fare, etc., with varying degree of initial success. Plus minimum wage law has already been in place since 2015.

Let us look at experiences of some developing countries.

Venezuela even has its parliament decree a fair price and cost law, to adopt the concept of price controls into law. They even made inflation illegal, i.e., it is illegal for traders and procedures to increase the price of goods without approval from government.
Yet years after its adoption price controls, Venezuela now has the world’s highest inflation rate. There are reduced availability of staple goods, with supermarkets having more and more empty shelves.

People have difficulties in finding cooking oil, chicken, powdered mil, cheese, sugar and meat. Government using its regular inflows of foreign currencies through the sale of crude from its vast oil reserves, imported by spending $7.5 billion on food imports to alleviate the shortage. But due to incompetence and corruption within the administration, vast shipment of food rotted before reaching the shops and public.

The famous Albert Einstein define insanity as to do the same thing over and over agin and expecting a different result.

Another South American country did the same thing. Argentina fixed prices of nearly 1,500 products as of last October, to control its on food prices. Now the country is facing an inflation rate nearly as high as that of Venezuela. Controls did assure a kind of stability in the country, preventing riots and chaos due to hyper inflation. But they came at a cost; Argentina has no economic growth since 2008, wages increases has fallen steadily behind less than inflation, making people lose their purchasing power and become steadily poorer.

The bad and the ugly

However well intentioned price controls are, they cannot overcome the economic forces of demand and supply in the long run. Price caps will cause the creation of excess demand and setting minimum prices will produce excess supplies.

Producers are better off at not producing rather than selling at government controlled prices, that would cause them to make losses. If they are forced to sell at these price ceilings, they would some how produce a lower quality version. Due to sub normal profits or losses, ceilings lead to underinvestment, hoarding and black markets.

Once started, these controlled prices are hard to remove. Economic theory suggests that it is best to implement ceilings when market prices are low, yet politics is such that elected officials are always slow to react and started with these control measures when they are faced with prospects of hyber inflation. It is better not have the controls in the first place, if the timing could not be right. But it is easier said than done in public affairs.
Prices are used to allocate scarce resources efficiently. Price controls distort thesis signals, leading to inefficient allocation, resulting in unwanted producer or consumer surpluses. They can even cause severe shortages if prices are set near or below producers’ costs, which discourages production. They cause disruption in the market, losses for producers and a noticeable change in quality. The final long term impacts would be shortages of those products under control, rationing, deterioration of quality, illegal markets, unofficial channels.

What about us

Foreign currency: The controlled exchange rates were put in place post 2021. Since then the spread between the CBM rates and the reality has gone wider and wider. The current CBM rate hovers around 3,000 Kyats per $ whereas the actual rates are now above 6,000 Kyats per $ (100 differential). There is simply no one transacting at the former controlled rate. CBM said small change is available for people going abroad but the truth is there is no such bank offering that facility at this point of time. If you need FX, be prepare to look high and low for black market traders and offer them whatever they asked. Feel free to report them to authorities if they did ask for an exorbitantly higher swap value. Foreign currencies are in short supply. Even some government department has to resort to outside purchases as the wait list and duration become unbearable. Even though most of the underground traders have been put into prisons, house arrests or been on the run, the situation is heading south, without an endless and sufficient supply being released into the market by the CBM. Even if it is achievable, the administrative process itself will enrich only the insider few and some financial institutions. The controls are going to get harder and harder to administer without further damage to the confidence on the recoverability of Myanmar economy.

Gold: Gold entrepreneurs have gone underground for the bulk of trading. The actual gold shops are only selling a minuscule amount of pure gold at controlled prices when the price controls started. Then the arrests came. Then promises by them to stay within the price limits. Now, they are selling at price ceiling set, but added on an enormous amount of handcraft service fees so that the final transacted price equate to the market price of gold.

At the time of writing, the government/Gold Association set price is at 47 Lakhs per tickel while the market offer is at 75 Lakhs per tickel (60+ % differential). In essence, consumers paid the market price (set price plus the handcraft service fees added). Only gold shops benefited by cheating honest customers who sell gold by offering them only controlled rates. Again, the gold sellers who want to receive the market price has to hunt around for who knows who of gold shops and deal with them in secret. So much for the success of price control operation on this gold. Probably the only beneficiaries are gold shop owners who acted as if they have been given license to cheat consumers and a few good men from Special Investigation branch who are at liberty to blackmail the shop owners in return.

1...345...239Page 4 of 239

Latest Videos

video
Video

Interview with Alison Fox Principal of The British School Yangon

Interview with Alison Fox Principal of The British School Yangon

Recent Posts

© 2019 Myanmar Insider. Website Maintenance by Myanmar Web Designer.