We at MI, recently wondered, how we could assess the state of the country and the economy nowadays objectively. NNCP (NUG, NLD, CRPH, PDF)terrorist groups were saying they were winning all the time. They claimed almost everyone was with them. The revolution would be completed very soon (akin to communists’ propaganda). People should stay home. Civil servants should continue their CDM (Civil Disobedience Movement) struggle. Else, they all could become part of the collateral damage.
How can we be sure, if people are paying at least some attention to what these terrorists have been saying? Are they really staying at home? Are the people in revolutionary mood well bent on destroying Myanmar? Would they use COVID as an excuse to follow the instructions of NNCP gang of terror?
Well, thank you google! With the objective to track people movements and outings, just like traffic congestion data, the google mobility reports were developed to determine how the general population is reacting to COVID through their respective movements. We decided to confine the data from the date of government change (February 01, 2021) till now, to see how the movement of the general population have been impaired because of political unrest and terrorist activities in Myanmar.
The finding is far from what the mis-information made out to be in Facebook. Other than the employment front, the state of the union is now stronger than it was exactly a year ago, at least based on the objective statistics that we analysed.
The grocery and pharmacy stores visits
They are nearly back to pre-COVID levels. Myanmar people have definitely come to live with COVID. The negative % on the Y-axis are the reduction compared to the based line set at pre-COVID at the beginning of February 2020. Compared to the change of government a year ago, the grocery and pharmacy stores visits are up, providing evidence of the country and the population being back to normal. The first trough is the consequences of incessant demonstrations till towards the end of April 2021 after the change of government, resulting in closure of businesses and people staying away from crowded areas, for fear of getting involved in chaos and riots. The second trough is due to COVID third wave by Delta virus, which caused many casualties in Myanmar.
Visits to parks and outdoor spaces
This statistics is indicative of the success (rather, the complete failure) of NNCP terrorists. Their daily encouragement through the social media and through gullible celebrities, to force people not to go out, not to be happy, not to support any kind of recreation activities, at the end of the day, are misfiring at best. No one is listening to them. The recreational visits to outdoors public places and parks are well above pre-SAC (State Administrative Council – the new government) levels.
In fact, people stayed away from these recreational places when these NNCP and their supporters are creating havoc, during the first trough. They are more scared of them than the COVID third wave itself, as evidenced by the comparison between the depth of the two troughs.
Retail and recreational visits
Retailers and F&B outlets can be happier now. These businesses are back to normal. In Yangon, restaurants, pubs and bars are crowded at night. Roads are congested during day time, in downtown and other shopping areas. Even the 22:00 – 04:00 curfew is helping the business of bars and discos. Patrons are locked in these places from 10pm till next day morning 4am (as they cannot go out or go home during these hours).
Time spent at home
This is one measure which indicate we are not back totally to normal in terms of employment and opportunities. At least 20% more people are staying at home compared to pre-COVID levels. The first peak represented the height of demonstrations and the second peak was due to the Delta virus.
People may be staying home due to structural unemployment. Some local and foreign companies have shut down, hotel and travel and tours industry is a pale shadow of its former self and almost every single companies have their staff numbers reduced.
This measure would coincides with the recovery of the economy in general; as the economy recovers, more and more opportunities would be created and the unemployment or stay home figures would go down.
Public transport stations
This area is still slightly short of pre-SAC government level. This may be due to the fact that NNCP terrorists are still roaming at will in some states, especially Sagaing and Kayah. Their destruction objectives of public infrastructure include roads, highways, rail tracks and bridges. There was even an attempted sabotage to brought down an air KBZ plane. Hence travellers are cautious.
Workplace visitors
Last but not least, this chart highlight that some of the work places are still adopting closed for visitors. Some of them are still working from home arrangement. Marketing calls and visits are still not fully accommodated yet.
With the advent of Omicron, we have to see if the uptrend can be permanent as the Delta enforced closure was quite significant as observed in the chart.
