The scam centres along side Myanmar eastern borders could be one of the most newsworthy issue of 2025. But with Myanmar government cleaning these up at rocket speed and EAOs caught between the devil and the deep blue sea, the supply of scams could become more decentralised over the next few years. Their operations become more mobile and agile. The number of staff involved also become akin to terror cells, staffed with just a few people with lots of mobile phones, technologies and AI. The supply might not drop but it would definitely become more distributed, scammers being stationed in various cities and towns within the poorer ASEAN countries. Regardless of supply, the demand side is on the side of the righteous. With more and more people becoming aware of scams of various kinds and major news network doing investigative
works along Mae Sot – Myawaddy border, the chances of public getting conned is lesser than what it was a couple of years ago. Words of mouth spread is also contributing towards the fight against scams. Furthermore, how many times could you possibly scam one person. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me! Or, that person has already run out of life long savings to be scammed upon. Hence, the demand for scams is going south as we write this and eventually, it would not occupy the top spot in crime charts even as the scammers devise new ways to dupe people using technology and ai. So, the crimes of swindle will dwindle as we straddle a quarter of this
century.
It’s great news for everyone then, is it not? Based on MI forecast of the times ahead, there might be more serious issues brewing around the corner. The reasoning is simple… The governance and law and order misalignment at the border areas have not been addressed at all. These regions, Wa, Koh Kant, some parts of Shan, Kayin, Kachin, Chin, Nagaland, are totally not under the control of the Myanmar government or military (Tatmadaw). The EAOs operating there are more interested in enriching themselves whichever way possible,rather than building infrastructure for the people. The drug lords, crime lords, war lords, etc., are still thriving there, by currying favours with the barbarian leaders of EAOs. Hence, the ecosystem is so oriented towards these regions into becoming the epicentre of next tsunami of global transgression. Drugs are openly sold along the streets of Hpa Kant, in Kachin State. Most of the youths in city of Mogok, near northern Shan are addicted to one kind of drug or another. The border town of Tachileik, being the major town in the Golden Triangle, is also flooded with drugs of various kinds that the residents there could not address the regularity of major floods that inundated the ground floors of almost all houses in the city.
In another checkpoint city of Myawaddy, frequent clashes between Tatmadaw and EAOs or between EAOs themselves have become so common that people are interested
in making quick money only i.e., engaging in abundance of vice. Further down south along the Three Pagoda pass, the sole trade across the border seems to be only in synthetic drugs. We do not know which way it is heading from there, but stats do actually reveal some trends. Even in cities such as Maw La Myine, the capital of Mon State, the only profitable businesses to do seems to be synthetic drugs, gambling and smuggling.We personally heard the direct account from youth and businessmen over there, who would regularly goto ‘Hi’ rooms once a week at least, as long as they got money in the pocket.
Outside of Myanmar, the latest statistics in Malaysia showed a 32.5% increase in reported drug users and addicts from 2023 to 2024. Its DPM said, “Drug abuse in Malaysia has reached a “critical level” and threatens public safety, economic stability, and social structures”. Australia has also reported A$450 million more drug seizures in 2024 compared to previous years. Thailand reported nearly 50% increase in drug related cases in 2024, too.
In Myanmar as well, the value of drug seizures have gone up significantly. Gone were the days when the carriers are caught with a hundred thousand dollars or so worth of drugs. Recent synthetic drugs seizures are each in excess of $1million for each bust. In its 2024 Annual Report, the International Narcotics Control Board finds that,
– illicit synthetic drugs are
spreading fast and consumption
is increasing
– more coordinated action by
Governments and others is
needed to tackle the problem
– synthetic drugs could overtake
some plant-based drugs in the
future.
The total and individual value of drug busts have gone up, even though the cost of synthetic drugs have gone down, which undoubtedly leads to the conclusion that the
volume of drugs shipped or transportedmust have gone up exponentially.
Synthetic drugs are easily manufactured with little technical or scientific knowledge and there is a reduced need for labour or land for cultivation unlike for plant-based drugs such as Cocaine or Heroine. The manufacture can be located anywhere and the same equipment can be used for different synthetic outputs. Traffickers can shift manufacture, movement and marketing tactics to keep operating costs down and profit margins up as well as to reduce risks of interdiction.
As synthetic drugs are more potent, traffickers can send smaller consignments which are easier to conceal and sometimes use drones and other new trafficking techniques. Although global demand for plantbased drugs is still higher than the current supply of synthetic drugs seizures of synthetic substances have already begun to outpace seizures of some plant-based drugs. Along the border regions of Myanmar, as long as the EAOs turned a blind eye, every household compound or basement can be a synthetic drug lab, churning out thousands of tablets per day. And if they can turn a blind eye to the scams that cheat the poor and gullible without an ounce of conscience, why would they bother interfering when they are producing and exporting some drugs! After all, they have been one of the world top exporters of Heroine before.
MI has spoken to one prominent business person from Keng Tung in Eastern Shan. He said the largest factories that supply the world of synthetics were located around the centre of Shan State, under the control of Wa and Shan State Armies. The individual labs by aspiring entrepreneurs are on empty land plots just on the outskirts of major towns and cities in these regions. The difference between synthetics and scams is such that the latter is not additive. The demand for scams is every diminishing while the demand for synthetics is growing exponentially, as the supply exploded and prices dropped. Combined that with addiction factor, we are looking at a worldwide disaster within a relatively short number of years. Just like scam centres, lack of jurisdiction alignment would come into play, resulting in years of inaction, blame game and finger pointing, while the world youth succumbs to the synthetic enslavement and loss of productivity and economic output.
We need to start working together now; ASEAN, RCEP, Interpol, INCB, etc., to ensure that the problem is nib in the bud. We definitely do not want another similar cataclysm
like the scam centres, do we??