Myanmar Insider presented the results of second quarterly economic survey and the resulting index to public this month. The objective is to provide information on business environment in Myanmar for all stakeholders, especially the government, the investors and the business community.
- The current economic situation in the country is still bad or very bad, with more than 66% of the respondents saying the economy is in the bad or very bad territory in present. However, the economic situation is slightly decreased compared to the previous quarter, comparing the survey results.
It also somehow validates our respondents’ forecast in the previous quarter survey which clearly highlighted the fact that most of our respondents expect the economy to get worse in Q2 of 2019. On the other hand, the results remain the same like the previous quarter though it slightly decreased even though the respondents are not the same.
- For the forecast of the next quarter, business leaders are getting less optimistic as more than 60% expect that the business environment to get a little worse in Q3 of 2019.
- For confidence level on business prospects, 54% of respondents answered they are ‘somewhat confident’ in current survey even though there is no respondents who answered ‘confident’ to their business. This general negative sentiment has affected confidence at company level where 50% of respondents are feeling somewhat unconfident to their individual’s business.
- In terms of business opportunities, some business leaders mostly recommend that more minor opportunities will come to their businesses.
- In terms of making more investments, the results are becoming more decreased compared to the previous quarter, the majority of the respondents being unsure whether to make additional investments.
- For key economic indicators, Myanmar Insider asked the respondents to give their forecasts on economic growth, inflation and exchange rate. Majority of the respondents are expecting the economy, inflation and exchange rate to get worse. For inflation, the respondents in this quarter expects to get worse i.e., business people are expecting higher inflation in the coming quarter. The exchange rate are fared better in this survey as the respondents believed Kyats had reached an oversold level.
- Based on the survey, the economic confidence index for the present quarter is negative 24 points, a little worse than the previous quarter of negative 21 points.
- Though Myanmar’s current business situation is not good, most business leaders are expecting their business to be profitable in the current quarter.
- In the final question of recommending Myanmar as a destination for investment at present to their friends, the number of people saying “Yes” has also improved even though 67% of respondents still do not believe that now is not the time to invest in Myanmar.