A strange and humble sound name El Nino is not as what it seems. Actually El Nino in Spanish means Christ Child. It is recurrent weather phenomenon. It brings catastrophic destruction not only to the affected country itself it also does damage to the neighboring countries by directly or indirectly. Lately New Light of Myanmar reported that El Nino affected countries, USA, India, Philippine, Indonesia have lost 22,731 lives in 2015 and monetary loss was valued at $66.5 billion due to El Nino. World Health Organization (WHO) claimed that last year, Brazil has experienced driest season in history, the kind of season favorable for a virus like Zika. Now Zika has been spreading across 25 countries throughout the world. This is one concrete example of El Nino also affecting public health just like agriculture and fisheries sectors, which have been impacted previously.
Currently Myanmar is experiencing an early stage of worst El Nino effect in history. Local renowned meteorology expert Dr Tun Lwin predicted that temperatures could soar up to 45 degree Celsius in certain parts of the country. He also warned that upcoming summer Ultra-Violet (UV) rays would reach an extreme point.
The main focal point for El Nino will be in Ayarwaddy, Magaway and Sagaing Regions, home to some 15 million residents, well known as the country agricultural production hub. It will be major blow to the country economy because 70% of Myanmar population is rural and they mainly rely on the agricultural production.
El Nino impact is enormous, as its effects are not only felt on land but also at sea. University of Illinois research pointed out that the water circulation system from the sea level to the deeper parts (Thermocline) of the ocean (where rich nutrients lie for sea living things) would be adversely impacted by El Nino. Due to the lack of nutrition and excessive temperatures, fish will move from sea level to deeper parts. Fisheries production will decline drastically, resulting price increases on a major source of food for human population.
Recently local news journal conducted an interview with Dr Tun Lwin in which he said the price of rice has jump into 38.4 percentages within the short time frame from Jun 2015 to Oct 2015. He also suggested that because of El Nino at present, raining season would come late; farmers would be wise to choose the right crops to plough.
Last year a local newspaper reported that there was significant improvement on Myanmar export income. Sector wise, $58 million came from forestry related trade, $1.076 billion from agricultural products, over $305 million from the mining sector, and $129 million from fisheries. Unfortunately, these figures might due to the influence of the bad weather. It is actually a bitter pill for an emerging market because it will worsen the trade imbalance between exports and imports. According to the OECD report there was consistent trade deficit for Myanmar in recent years. International Monetary Fund report 2015 suggested that to stay competitive in the region Myanmar have to improve to reduce its reliance on. Above all these impacts on our food chain, El Niño will also interrupt the electricity distribution due to the possible disruption on water supply Myanmar relies for hydropower. Most of the affected will be urban population; according to Myanmar census 2014 report that only 32.4 percentage of population are get access to the electricity, mostly in urban areas. Production lines in some industrial zone will be disrupted as well.
El Nino effects would not be complete without mentioning fire hazard due to extreme temperatures. Some of the remarkable fires (not necessarily due purely to El Nino) include Mingalarzay fire in January, damaging about 3.6 Billion Kyat, Nam Sam fire damaging whole town in Shan State, La Pwatar fire and Nyaung Oo City Fire, all in the months of February.
Government has taken preventative actions by taking such initiatives as investing 78 million kyats to support drinking water for the El Nino affected areas. Recent good news from Myanmar meteorological department official statement on March 7 mentioned that Kachin State, Chin State and Sagaing Regions are expect to get higher rain fall than usual, in the upcoming raining season. It further stated that consequent of heavy rainfall after an extra long draught could bring health issues, agricultural difficulties, drinking water shortages, reduced fishery producing and disruptions to river transportation.
Be prepared. Buckle up as extreme weather is already here.
