Home Insider Insider Analysis Quarterly Myanmar Economic Confidence Index (Quarter 3, 2018)

Quarterly Myanmar Economic Confidence Index (Quarter 3, 2018)

Myanmar Insider presented the results of quarterly economic confidence survey and the resulting index of Q3 of this year. The objective is to provide information on business sentiment and environment in Myanmar for all stakeholders, especially the government, the investors and the business people. The results of the survey are as follows:

  1.  67% of survey respondents viewed the economy as very bad in Q3 of 2018. The percentage is more than double of the last quarter survey (Q2, 2018).
  2.  For the forecast on the current quarter, 60% of the respondents expect the economy to get much worse with 40% expecting the economy to get a little better in Q4 of 2018.
  3. This general negative sentiment has effected confidence at company level where 42% are feeling somewhat unconfident about their individual company’s business prospects.
  4. In terms of actually making more investments, 40% said they were very unlikely to invest and another 40% were unsure. It reflected a very bleak situation for the economy.
  5.  For key economic indicators, Myanmar Insider asked the respondents to give their forecasts on economic growth, inflation and exchange rates. Majority of the respondents are expecting the economy, inflation and exchange rates to get worse. The exchange rates fared better in this survey as the respondents believed Kyats had reached an oversold level.
  6.  Based on the result of business confidence related questions, the Quarterly Economic Confidence Index was negative 40 points; Most businessmen were quite negative on the economic prospects in the country. The index has reached the lowest among all the quarters that Myanmar Insider had surveyed.
  7.  This lack of confidence has a contagion effect on the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The number of business people advising others not to invest in the country has actually gone up.
  8.  Last but not least, Myanmar Insider added a new question in this quarter survey, asking if your business is expected to be profitable in this year. Nearly 80% of the respondents do not expect their business to be profitable in the current financial year.