We have written extensively on how the economy would tank in the coming months, including 2019, in two parts series on ‘Preparing for an Economic Upheaval’ in last issue of Myanmar Insider and in social media.
The truth is worse than our forecasts; Economy dived more. Gold for the first time in history has reached more than one million Kyats per tickle. Dollar is hovering around 1600. Inflation is likely to reach double digits this quarter.
We are now in a situation where the economy cannot be boosted without a substantial further devaluation of Myanmar Kyat. Effects of fiscal stimulus takes time and with the elections looming in two years, it is unlikely that the government would be able to much revive the economy.
While getting prepared for more headwinds ahead, let’s enjoy the festival of Tha-DinGyut, and welcome the end of the raining season with us.